Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Stock rally, day two

Stocks rallied Tuesday afternoon as investors built on the previous session's gains amid better-than-expected corporate results and signs of stability in the housing sector.

A Senate hearing on financial reform was also in focus, while a weaker dollar lifted commodity stocks.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 100 points, or 1%, with around 90 minutes left in the session. The S&P 500 index (SPX) gained 12 points, or 1.1%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 13 points or 0.6%.

Stocks are rising this week, as investors step back in after a two-week selloff that saw the S&P 500 lose almost 7%. Worries about Obama's plan to limit trading at big banks, China's lending curbs and global debt worries all led to the selloff.

While these concerns haven't disappeared, investors nonetheless used the selloff as an opportunity to dip back into stocks at a lower level.

"We're seeing a little bounce here, but I think we could still see more selling in the short term," said Dave Hinnenkamp, CEO at KDV Wealth Management.

He said that fourth-quarter earnings have been strong, but that was already anticipated by investors and is having little impact on the broad market.

"People are focusing on the outlook for banks, China and the deficit and not really paying attention to the earnings," he said.

Gains were broad based Tuesday, with 28 of 30 Dow stocks rising, including Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), which was upgraded by Citigroup.

Housing: The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index rose 1%, in line with expectations. The index fell 16.4% in the previous month.

Auto sales: Major automakers, including Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500), General Motors and Nissan all reported improved January sales. However, Toyota (TM), which earlier this month recalled millions of cars due to a faulty gas pedal, saw a bigger-than-expected decline in January sales.

Washington: The Senate Budget Committee held a hearing on the 2011 budget. In prepared testimony, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said a bipartisan effort is needed to trim a deficit the Obama White House mostly inherited from the Bush administration. He said the economy is recovering, but it will take time for the private sector to create new jobs.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman and current economic adviser Paul Volcker testifies on financial reform before the Senate Banking Committee later in the day.
Good news: Sales growth is back

Corporate results: UPS (UPS, Fortune 500) reported lower quarterly revenue and earnings versus a year earlier, but the results topped analysts' expectations. The company also issued a 2010 earnings forecast of $2.70 to $3.05 per share, up from 2009. Analysts are expecting $2.81 per share. Shares were little changed in the early going.

Homebuilder D.R. Horton (DHI, Fortune 500) reported quarterly earnings of 56 cents per share in its fiscal first-quarter, surprising analysts who thought it would report a loss. The company benefited from a big tax gain. The company also said that new orders and completed sales rose significantly in the quarter. Shares gained 10% in active New York Stock Exchange trading.

Emerson Electric (EMR, Fortune 500), a maker of automation systems for a broad range of companies, reported weaker quarterly sales and earnings that surged past forecasts. Shares gained 8%.

With around 48% of the S&P 500 having reported results, earnings are currently on track to have risen 204% from the prior year, according to the latest estimates from Thomson Reuters. But the improvement is mostly because of cost-cutting and easy comparisons to a wretched fourth quarter of 2008.

The financial sector is expected to lead the advance, rising 73% versus a year earlier. Strip out financial sector results and earnings are only expected to rise 15%.

Revenue is set to rise about 8% year over year. Excluding financial firms, revenue is expected to rise about 3%.
0:00 /3:46Glass-Steagall crash course

World markets: In overseas trading, Asian markets ended higher, gaining for a second week in a row after last week's selloff. European markets also ended higher.

Commodities and the dollar: The dollar fell versus the euro and the yen.

COMEX gold for February delivery rose $13.10 to $1,117.40 an ounce.

U.S. light crude oil for February delivery added $2.85 to $77.28 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.64% from 3.65% late Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Monday, February 1, 2010

Stocks bounce after battering

Stocks surged Monday, starting off a new month with gains, as investors welcomed better-than-expected reports on personal income, manufacturing and Exxon Mobil's profit.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 90 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 index (SPX) gained 11 points, or 1%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) added 18 points, or 0.9%.

Wall Street ended one of the worst months in nearly a year Friday, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all closing at two-month lows. President Obama's plan to restrict trading at big banks, China's bank lending curbs and global debt worries all rattled investors.

But investors used the selloff as an opportunity to get back into stocks Monday, continuing the trend of the last year.

"People getting in at these levels are assuming that this is another of the mini-corrections we've seen over the last 11 months, but I would be skeptical," said Paul Brigandi, vice president of trading at Direxion Funds.

He said that with the market up more than 50% from the lows of last March, a correction of 10% to 15% was not out of the question. Between the high on Jan. 19 and Friday's lows, the S&P 500 lost just under 7%.

"I think you could see a deeper selloff," Brigandi said.

Gains were broad based, with 27 of 30 Dow components rising, led by Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), McDonald's (MCD, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500).
How to slash the debt by $1.2 trillion

Quarterly results: Exxon Mobil reported a profit of $6.05 billion or $1.27 per share, down about 18% from the fourth quarter of 2008 when oil prices were lower and fuel demand was higher. Nonetheless, results topped the forecasts of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

With around 45% of the S&P 500 having reported results, earnings are currently on track to have risen 206% from a year ago, according to the latest from Thomson Reuters. But the rise is mostly due to cost-cutting and easy comparisons to an abysmal fourth quarter of 2008.

The financial sector in particular is set to bounce back. Strip out financial sector results and earnings are only expected to rise 15%.

Revenue is set to rise about 7% year over year. Without financials, revenue is expected to rise about 2%.

Budget: President Obama unveiled a $3.8 trillion budget for 2011 on Monday that looks to both support the still-fragile economy and temper the nation's growing deficit.

Economy: Personal income rose 0.4% in December, the Commerce Department reported, surprising economists who were looking for an increase of 0.3% on average, according to Briefing.com estimates. Income rose 0.5% in the previous month.

Personal spending rose 0.2% after rising 0.3% in the previous month. Economists thought it would rise 0.3% in December.

The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index rose to 58.4 in January from 54.9 in December. Economists thought it would rise to 55.5.

Construction spending fell 1.2% in December, worse than the drop of 0.5% economists were expecting. Spending fell 1.2% in November.
0:00 /0:59Toyota to fix gas pedals

Toyota: On Monday, the company announced plans to fix millions of gas pedals in recalled vehicles and said it has already shipped out parts to dealers.

The fix eliminates the problem that caused pedals to stick, which prompted the recall of 2.3 million vehicles in the United States.

World markets: In overseas trading, Asian markets ended higher, rebounding after last week's selloff. European markets gained, with the London FTSE up 0.5%, the German DAX up 0.4% and the French CAC 40 up 0.1%.

Commodities and the dollar: The dollar fell versus the euro and gained versus the yen.

COMEX gold for February delivery rose $21.30 to settle at $1,104.30 an ounce. Gold closed at an all-time high of $1,218.30 an ounce last month.

U.S. light crude oil for February delivery added $1.54 to settle at $74.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Bonds: Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 3.65% from 3.58% late Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers almost three to one on volume of 700 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners eight to five on volume of 1.72 billion shares.

Friday, January 29, 2010

Stocks rally on GDP growth

Stocks advanced Friday after a report showed that the U.S. economy grew at a 5.7% annual rate last quarter, the fastest pace in six years.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 70 points, or 0.7%. The S&P 500 index (SPX) rose 7 points, or 0.7%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 19 points, or 0.9%.

Stocks tumbled Thursday after a cautious outlook from Qualcomm decked techs. A Standard & Poor's report saying the U.K.'s banking system is no longer one of the most stable and low risk also played a role in the selling.

On the upside, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was confirmed for a second term Thursday, ending the uncertainty that has hung over the market over the last week.

Len Blum, managing director at Westwood Capital LLC, said he's skeptical of the positive vibe among investors and of the heady expectations.

"The positive results are from the government stimulus and the inventory cycle," said Blum. "I don't think growth will be sustainable without more government stimulus."

Economy: GDP, the broadest measure of the economy, rose at a 5.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter. That is significantly higher than the 4.7% rate that was expected by a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. That's compared to an increase of 2.2% in the prior quarter.

The Chicago PMI, a regional manufacturing survey, is also on tap, as is the University of Michigan's survey on consumer sentiment.

Fed: Investors are also likely to express relief after Bernanke was confirmed for a second term Thursday. Concerns that his term wouldn't be renewed have weighed on investors lately.

Earnings: Rosy results from Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) and Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) may offer support. Microsoft posted profit and sales that topped estimates after U.S. markets closed Thursday. Amazon also reported better-than-expected results.

Jobs: President Obama is due to unveil a $33 billion package of tax credits aimed at job creation on Friday. The plan is part of his vow to spur job creation.
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World markets: Asian shares took another beating as investors took cues from Wall Street's losses. But in Europe, the mood was brighter, with major indexes posting gains in afternoon trading.

Cash and bonds: The dollar rose against the euro, the yen and the British pound. The price of the 10-year note fell, pushing up the yield to 3.66%.

Gold and oil: The price of gold slipped $3.20 per ounce to $1,080.40. The price of oil rose 75 cents to $74.39 per barrel.

Monday, January 25, 2010

Stocks try to recharge

Stocks managed slim gains Monday as investors weighed recent worries about the bank sector and the likelihood of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke serving for a second term.

A weaker-than-expected housing market report put a lid on gains.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 23 points or 0.2%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 index (SPX) added 5 points or 0.5%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 5 points or 0.3%.

Gains in large bank stocks, techs and big industrial firms helped lead the advance, with 24 of 30 Dow components rising. The biggest advancers were IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500), Travelers (TRV, Fortune 500), 3M (MMM, Fortune 500), Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500).

"We had a series of events last week that hit the market broadside, but I think we've gotten past that sting," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. "The good ship Wall Street should be starting to right itself."

Stocks plunged last week after the White House proposed new limits on banks and talk swirled that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's term may not be renewed. In three sessions, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all slumped 5%.

But those worries were tempered Monday at the start of a busy week for economic and earnings news. This week brings the Federal Reserve policy-setting meeting, the first reading on fourth-quarter GDP growth, the president's State of the Union address and profit reports from a slew of major companies. Apple reports after the close Monday.

The market is bound to walk a narrow path this week, especially through Wednesday, which brings the conclusion of the Fed meeting and the president's State of the Union speech, said Ted Weisberg, NYSE Floor Trader at Seaport Securities.

"Last week's flogging of the banking sector and the political theatre around Bernanke sent a negative message to the markets," Weisberg said. "But after the weekend and a moderation of the message, people realize that nothing has changed in terms of the fundamentals."

He said that investors are acknowledging Monday that the economy is still making a slow recovery, fourth-quarter earnings have been looking strong, and that Obama's bank plan may not gain approval from Congress. Additionally, the five percent selloff in three days was giving investors a chance to dip back into stocks Monday.

The Dow's weekly loss of 4.1% was the worst since the week ended March 6, 2009, when it closed at a 12-year low and the market hit bottom. Since then, the Dow has risen 57% as of Friday's close.

On Friday, the VIX (VIX), the market's fear gauge, spiked at a 6-month high as investors worried that a bigger selloff was brewing. But on Monday, the VIX was back down 8%.

Housing: Sales of existing homes fell to a 5.45 million unit annual rate in December from a rate of 6.54 million units in November, according to a National Association of Realtors report released in the morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would fall to a 5.9 million unit rate.

December was expected to show a decline following a robust November that benefited from a belief that the first-time homebuyer tax credit was about to expire. But when that credit was extended and expanded, the momentum dropped.
Bernanke quest: The scramble for 60 votes

Federal Reserve: Amid ongoing questions about whether Bernanke's term will be renewed, the central bank is meeting to discuss interest rate policy. Bankers meet Tuesday and Wednesday and are widely expected to opt to keep interest rates steady at historic lows near zero.

Although the bank isn't likely to say much, investors will still scour the statement for hints about when the Fed plans to start raising interest rates or withdrawing some of the trillions in stimulus dollars it has put into the system.

Sustained low interest rates and the increase of money in the system are seen as among the main reasons why the economy didn't crater and the stock market was able to bounce back last year.
0:00 /5:55Why more banks will fail in 2010

World markets: Asian markets tumbled, with the Japanese Nikkei losing 0.7%. European markets tumbled as well.

Commodities and the dollar: The dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the yen.

COMEX gold for February delivery rose $6.50 to settle at $1,095.70 an ounce. Gold closed at an all-time high of $1,218.30 an ounce last month.

U.S. light crude oil for February delivery rose 72 cents to settle at $75.26 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Bonds: Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 3.61% from 3.69% late Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by three to two on volume of 850 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by a narrow margin on volume of 1.89 billion shares.

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Sunday, January 3, 2010

New and improved mortgage forms

Starting Jan. 1, new rules go into effect that simplify and clarify exactly what mortgage lenders will charge for a loan.

The initiative from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)requires that a new "Good Faith Estimate" form be given to all applicants, one that makes it easier to compare true costs of loans from different lenders.

"The main purpose is to give consumers the tools to be able to compare apples to apples," said Robert Grosser of Luxury Mortgage, a New Jersey-based direct lender. "All lenders must use a specific form and disclose fees in the same spots on the same forms." (See the new form.)

Until now, borrowers might have focused on interest rates or monthly payments to compare mortgages options. But fees play a big part in total cost, said Vicki Bott, HUD's Deputy Assistant Secretary for Single Family Programs

There are generally two blocs of fees.

One covers origination charges, what the lender receives for providing you with the loan.

The second bloc consists of settlement fees, for say, title insurance or an appraisal.

If borrowers accept the offers as outlined, lenders must issue the loans under the costs listed -- with little room for surprise.

If the mortgage originator provides services in the second bloc, it must stick to the original fees within 10%. If, for example, the lender tells you the title insurance it arranges will cost $2,000, the final fee for that cannot exceed $2,200. (If you decide you're going elsewhere for title insurance, you're on your own.)

"It truly drives accountability," said Bott. "It makes the lender say, 'What I quoted is what you get.'"

The estimate is not iron clad, and can be altered if there's a material change in circumstances. If the appraisal comes in lower than expected, for example, that could affect the mortgage rate, though the lender must quickly tell the borrower, according to Bott.

The new 3-page form has lines covering all the settlement fees, such as the origination fee and points charged up-front to reduce the interest rate. It also clearly lists the initial loan amount, the term length in years, the monthly payment, the initial interest rate, and whether that interest rate can rise plus any prepayment penalties or balloon payments.

There's also a "shopping chart" on the third page in which up to four different deals can be placed side-by-side and their costs easily compared.

Say two lenders both offer a 5% loan on a $200,000 mortgage that has a monthly payment of $1,074 a month. One lender may charge $5,000 for it and another just $3,000. The new form should make it simpler for consumers to recognize the better deal.
Housing outlook 2010

"It's definitely a step in the right direction toward simpler and straightforward key information on mortgages," said Alex Pollock, an American Enterprise Institute fellow who has developed and advocated for the use of a one-page mortgage form to better help consumers understand their obligations.

He does not, however, think the new form goes far enough.

"It focuses on the question of whether this is the best deal," Pollock said. "In my opinion, it's more important to ask if I can afford this mortgage. This might be the best deal I can get but I still may not be able to afford it."

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Stocks struggle after six up days

Stocks churned early Tuesday as investors struggled to extend a six-session, year-end winning streak that has left the major indexes at their highest point in nearly 15 months.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 23 points, or 0.2%, in the early going. The S&P 500 index (SPX) gained 1 point, or 0.1%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) was little changed.

Stocks rallied Monday, with the Dow and S&P 500 ending at the highest levels since Oct. 1, 2008 and the Nasdaq ending at the highest point since Sept. 3, 2008.

But many market participants are taking the entire week off, which means trading volume is low and relatively small moves could cause major volatility during the shortened week on Wall Street. The stock market is closed Friday in observance of New Year's Day.

Financial stocks could be in the spotlight Tuesday on news that Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) may overhaul the way it pays its senior executives, according to a Wall Street Journal report, relegating a larger percentage of total compensation to shares rather than cash.

Economy. Shortly after the opening bell, the Conference Board releases its December report on consumer confidence. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expect a rise in the confidence index to 53 from 49.5 in November.

S&P/Case-Shiller said home prices in 20 cities were unchanged in October from September.

World markets. Stocks in Asia closed slightly higher, with Tokyo's Nikkei index gaining a few points. European indexes were up a little in afternoon trading.

Money and oil. The dollar was down against the euro, but higher versus the pound and yen.

Crude oil for February delivery fell 47 cents to $78.30 a barrel.

Gold for February delivery eased $6 to $1,110.90 an ounce.
 

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